Trees, crops, and rural livelihoods: Afforestation of marginal croplands in Uzbekistan

The livelihoods of rural population in Uzbekistan, Central Asia, highly depend on irrigated agriculture. However, agricultural production is threatened by the impacts of land degradation, irrigation water scarcity and climate change. The conversion of marginal croplands to tree plantations could represent an option to tackle such problems, while also improving population welfare. Yet, this land use is currently not practiced, owing to lack of farmers’ knowledge on revenues and impacts on livelihoods. In addition, state policies prohibit the conversion of croplands into tree plantations. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate economically viable options of afforestation of degraded irrigated croplands using an example of the Khorezm region and three southern districts of the Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. This includes analyzing the impacts on the rural livelihoods by Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) afforestation with its carbon sequestration reward of temporary Certified Emission Reduction (tCER). Using an example of irrigated areas in Uzbekistan, this study contributes to the general knowledge of sustainable rural development via converting marginal lands from crop cultivation to tree plantations. This research employed various methodologies at different scales to evaluate the economic conditions of introducing short-rotation tree plantations along with the CDM requirements. At the field level analysis (1 ha), the net present value and stochastic dominance analyses were employed to investigate the financial attractiveness of afforestation on marginal croplands and to derive tCER payments that would initiate CDM afforestation. At the farm level, the expected utility method was employed to determine the tCER price that would facilitate CDM afforestation on marginal croplands, and to analyze respective effects on land use and farm incomes. At the system level, that comprises commercial farms and rural households, the farm-household stochastic dynamic nonlinear programming model was developed to analyze the effects on rural livelihoods from converting marginal farmlands to tree plantations The results of the study indicate that due to benefits from non-timber products the short-term afforestation can be a more viable land use option on marginal croplands than the cultivation of major crops. At the same time, using the field level analysis while considering variabilites in land use revenues would necessitate an extreme increase in tCER prices, from the current tCER price of 4.76 USD (as of 2009). In contrast, when considering uncertainties in land use returns at the whole farm level, the current tCER price would be sufficient to initiate CDM afforestation. This is because tree plantations would economically improve a commercial farmer’s cropping pattern, while mitigating the impacts of revenue risks via a land use diversification option. Afforestation of marginal croplands at a commercial farm would affect the structure of employment and agricultural contracts between commercial farm and rural households, and thus have positive spillover effects on the rural population and increase of rural households’ income by 27,400 USD in comparison to crop cultivation on marginal lands. The spillover effects would come from the reduced labor demand at commercial farm between the periods of tree plantation establishment and harvest, while the subsequent increase in farm employment would occur during the establishment and harvest of trees. The inclusion of fuelwood and tree foliage into the payment schemes would replace fossil fuels and fodder products and reduce rural households’ expenditure for domestic energy (36%) and fodder products (15%).Bäume, Getreide und ländlichen Existenzgrundlage: Aufforstung auf unproduktiven landwirtschaftlichen Flächen in Usbekistan Bewässerungslandwirtschaft stellt die Existenzgrundlage der ländlichen Bevölkerung in Usbekistan (Zentralasien) dar. Die landwirtschaftliche Produktion wird jedoch durch Bodendegradation, Wasserknappheit und die Folgen des Klimawandels bedroht. Die Umnutzung nicht produktiver Landwirtschaftsflächen zu Baumplantagen stellt eine Möglichkeit dar solchen Problemen zu begegnen und gleichzeitig die Gesamtwohlfahrt zu steigern. Da Erträge und Rückkopplungen dieser alternativen Nutzungsstrategien noch unklar sind, wird diese Landnutzung jedoch noch nicht praktiziert. Politische Richtlinien verbieten die Umnutzung von landwirtschaftlicher Produktionsfläche zu Baumplantagen ohnehin. Entsprechend sind die Ziele der vorliegenden Arbeit ökonomisch durchführbare Aufforstungsvarianten an Beispielen in der Region Khorezm sowie den drei südlichen Distrikten der autonomen Republik Karakalpakstan zu untersuchen. Dies beinhaltet die Analyse der Auswirkungen des Mechanismus für umweltverträgliche Entwicklung (Clean Development Mechanism–CDM) samt der temporären Emissionsreduktionseinheiten (temporary Certified Emission Reduction–tCER) auf die Existenzgrundlage der ländlichen Bevölkerung. Anhand des Beispiels der Bewässerungslandwirtschaft in Usbekistan trägt diese Studie zum generellen Verständnis nachhaltiger ländlicher Entwicklung durch Umnutzung nicht produktiver landwirtschaftlicher Flächen zu Baumplantagen bei. Auf verschiedenen Skalen wurden verschiedene Methoden angewandt um die ökonomischen Rahmenbedingungen der Einführung von Kurzumtriebsplantagen unter Berücksichtigung der CDM Anforderungen zu analysieren. Auf Feldskala wurden die Kapitalwertmethode sowie die stochastische Dominanzanalyse angewandt um zu bestimmen, wie attraktiv besagte Aufforstungensstrategien aus finanzieller Sicht sind und um tCER Zahlungen abzuleiten, die Aufforstungen unter CDM anstoßen könnten. Auf Betriebsebene wurde die Erwartungsnutzen Methode andewandt um die tCER Preise zu bestimmen, die CDM Aufforstung ermöglichen würden sowie um die entsprechenden Effekte auf Landnutzung und Einkommen der Landwirte und Haushalte zu analysieren. Auf Systemebene, die landwirtschaftliche Großbetriebe sowie ländliche Haushalte beinhaltet, wurde das Stochastische Dynamische Betriebs-Haushalts Programmierungsmodell entwickelt um die Effekte der Aufforstung auf die ländlichen Existenzgrundlage zu analysieren.Die Ergebnisse der vorliegenden Studie lassen darauf schließen, dass kurzfristige Aufforstungsmaßnahmen durch Gewinne aus Nichtholzprodukten für den Landwirt mehr Einkommen generieren als der Anbau der gängigen Feldfrüchte. Gleichzeitig zeigt die Analyse auf Feldskala unter Berücksichtigung von Ertragsvariabilitäten, dass eine Erhöhung der tCER Preise vom momentanen Stand (4.76 USD im Jahr 2009) nötig wäre. Gegenläufig verhalten sich die Ergebnisse auf Betriebsebene; hier wären die angenommenen tCER Preise ausreichend um CDM Aufforstung zu initialisieren. Grund hierfür ist die Tatsache, dass Baumpflanzungen die Fruchtfolge von Großbetrieben ökonomisch verbessern würden und gleichzeitig das Umsatzrisiko durch die Möglichkeit zur Diversifikation herabsetzen. Aufforstung von unproduktiven Landwrtschaftsflächen auf Ebene der Großbetriebe hätte Auswirkungen auf die Beschäftigungsstrukturen und die Vertragsverhältnisse zwischen Großbetrieben und der ländlichen Bevölkerung. Externe Effekte würden hier das Einkommen der ländlichen Haushalte im Vergleich zum Anbau klassischer Feldfrüchte um 27,400 USD erhöhen. Diese externen Effekte beruhen auf dem niedrigeren Bedarf an Arbeitskräften in Großbetrieben zwischen Pflanzung der Bäume und Rodung. Die Einführung von Brennholz und Blattwerk in die Vergütungsstruktur würde fossile Brennstoffe und Futterkäufe ersetzen und dadurch die Ausgaben der Haushalte für Energie (36%) und Futterzukäufe (15%) verringern

Biodiversity in rubber agroforests, carbon emissions, and rural livelihoods: An agent-based model of land-use dynamics in lowland Sumatra

AbstractRubber agroforests in the mostly deforested lowlands of Sumatra, Indonesia are threatened by conversion into monoculture rubber or oil palm plantations. We applied an agent-based model to explore the potential effectiveness of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) design through a biodiversity rich rubber eco-certification scheme. We integrated conditionality, where compliance with biodiversity performance indicators is prerequisite for awarding incentives. We compared a PES policy scenario to ‘business-as-usual’ and ‘subsidized land use change’ scenarios to explore potential trade-offs between ecosystem services delivery and rural income. Results indicated that a rubber agroforest eco-certification scheme could reduce carbon emissions and species loss better than alternative scenarios. However, the suggested premiums were too low to compete with income from other land uses. Nevertheless, integrating our understanding of household agent behavior through a spatially explicit and agent-specific assessment of the trade-offs can help refine the design of conservation initiatives such as PES

CDM afforestation for managing water, energy and rural income nexus in irrigated drylands

Rural livelihood in arid irrigated areas is hampered by water scarcity, land degradation and climate change. Studies showed a possibility to tackle these challenges by establishing tree plantations on marginal croplands as supported by the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) forestation programs. Despite the environmental impact such projects would also affect the decision making of rural population by changing their land use activities, incomes and consumption structures. Thus, this study further analyzed the impact of CDM forestation on rural livelihood by considering rural interdependencies via wage-labor relations of agribusiness-operated farms and rural households in the Khorezm province and southern districts of Autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. We developed a farm-household dynamic programming model that jointly maximizes farm profits and rural households net incomes over a 15-years horizon under the scenario of decreasing irrigation water availability and plantation forestry with a seven year rotation period. The analysis showed that shortly following a land use change towards afforestation, the farm demand for rural households’ labor would decline thus decreasing the household incomes. Yet, later on after harvesting tree plantations, in year seven, the farm benefits would be transmitted to rural households via access to cheaper fuelwood and leaves as fodder, as well as via improved land use activities. The availability of fuelwood from tree plantations would significantly decrease CO2 emissions of households by substituting fossil fuels, while leaves would reduce expenditures for livestock fodder. These substitution effects would lead to the increase of income and in turn improve households’ food consumption. Besides, given the low irrigation demand of trees, a conversion of marginal cropland to tree plantations would increase the irrigation water availability for other productive croplands. These changes would lead that tree plantations would increase in year seven profits of farmer (up to 39,200 USD) and net incomes of rural households (up to 12,700 USD). Whereas when only conventional land uses are followed the decline in water availability would reduce profits of farm (from 13,000 USD to 9,850 USD) and net incomes of rural households (from 11,900 to 10,500 USD) over the modeled period. Overall, we argue that the implementation of the short-term CDM forestation could help cushion repercussions of water shortages on rural livelihoods, sustaining energy, income and food security, as well as mitigating climate change in drylands

The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan

In Uzbekistan cotton production substantially contributes to GDP. The cotton is produced based on the cotton procurement policy, according to which farmers have to allocate half of their land for cotton and produce certain amount of cotton. However, cotton yields are uncertain. Lower than expected cotton production by farms can be considered as inefficient farm. Because farmers lease land from the state, failure to deliver the cotton output lead to adjustment in its scale of operations – a process called farm optimization. Reduction in farm size of one farmer leads that the area of more efficient farmer that accomplished the cotton production increases. The study aims to develop policies that can improve cotton production and farm incomes. For this we developed a dynamic recursive model that considers variability and farm adjustments. We showed that variability influences farm sizes and due to farm size changes the income inequality may widen among farms

Spillover effects of market-based instruments under revenue uncertainty in Jambi Province, Indonesia

In the case study of Indonesia we investigated possible effects of different types of market-based instruments (MBI), including rewards and taxes, on larger farmer (landlord) that adopts MBI and spillovers on working on his land under sharecropping arrangement another farmer (tenant). Multi-period expected value model with Monte Carlo simulation and Brownian motion was used. Findings showed that high prices of MBI would increase incomes of landlord but would reduce incomes of tenant through reduced working activities at landlord due to less cultivation of labor demanding crops. In most cases the incomes of landlord would be the under the MBI scenarios than in the business-as-usual scenario. If uncertainty in revenues is considered then MBI would reduce variability in incomes of both landlord and tenant. Rewards for increasing supply rather than taxation for reducing provision of ecosystem services resulted in higher rural incomes and provision of ecosystem services

Assessing nexus effects of energy use in rural areas: the case of an inter- and intra-household model for Uttar Pradesh, India

The focus of our analysis is on nexus issues among energy use, incomes, employment, investment decisions, and agricultural production for meeting food and feed demands, as well as health-related effects on rural households. As an example we investigate potential policies, such as public subsidies for solar panels and increase in non-agricultural employment opportunities, for meeting energy demands and improving rural livelihoods, using an agricultural household dynamic programming model. The model includes two types of households that differ in their socio-economic characteristics - poor and rich as measured by their asset and resource endowments, which are linked through the agricultural contracts such as wage-labor and payment for irrigation supply. Moreover, we differentiate the potential impacts of policies at the intra-household level, with special focus of effects on men, women and children. The case study area is the Uttar Pradesh province of India and the main data source is the household survey. The study shows that state subsidies for solar panels improve energy use, agricultural production and incomes of both households in comparison to the business-as-usual case. Also, interactions among two households with agricultural contracts increase. The policy scenario on increasing non-agricultural employment opportunities do not change much energy use pattern of rural households but substantially improves the income levels of poor household, where such household allocates most of labor force for non-agricultural work. In contrast, the household that is better endowed with agricultural production resources looses from such a policy due to less labor available to manage its farm